It’s time for the UEFA Champions League Final, and a surprising Relegation Play-Off in Serie A!
Thanks to the unique winter 2022 FIFA World Cup, the 2022-23 campaign has felt like one of the longest for a while. However, that doesn’t mean we haven’t been on the edge of our seats throughout! It has been wall-to-wall drama in every single competition and, whilst we are down to a select few remaining, the size and importance of these matches are worth their weight in gold. In a near-literal sense, too, because this weekend we await the UEFA Champions League Final where Manchester City and Inter have one more match that separates them from the greatest club silverware around. Elsewhere, if you were to speak to Spezia and Verona fans, they would tell you that their Serie A Relegation Play-Off is of equal importance. In a tiebreaker match not seen in Italy for 18 years, who will come out of the encounter still in the Italian top-flight, and who will suffer a painful relegation to Serie B? The final weekend of the European season is here, and what drama we have to close the curtain!
Not sure who to take a punt on? Then read our preview and place your bets wisely!
Contents:
- UEFA Champions League – Final – Manchester City vs Inter
- Serie A – Relegation Play-Off – Spezia vs Verona
UEFA Champions League – Final – Manchester City vs Inter
And so, the UEFA Champions League Final arrives. After 78 teams competing from 53 different associations, we are left with two clubs just one match away from glory. Both Manchester City and Inter have never met before previously, and the last time that an English and Italian side faced each other in the UCL Final was all the way back in 2005 (Liverpool vs Milan). Coincidentally, that came at the very same stadium that will host this year’s spectacle, the Atatürk Olympic Stadium in Istanbul!
Manchester City are appearing in their third major European Final (1970 Cup Winners’ Cup, 2021 Champions League) and, by losing that UCL Final two years ago, City still go in search of the one title that continues to evade them. Under Pep Guardiola, they’ve won everything else, this is the empty spot in their trophy cabinet that has been in demand ever since the injection of funds from the Emirati owners some 15 years ago. Is now finally their time? Only a meaningless 1-0 defeat on the final day of the Premier League season against Brentford (the season was already wrapped up) prevented the Cityzens from carrying on a remarkable 26-match unbeaten run (won 21, drawn 5), a streak that includes all of their steps through the UCL knockout rounds.
Emphatic victories over Leipzig (8-1 on aggregate), Bayern (4-1 on aggregate) and reigning champions Real Madrid (5-1 on aggregate) in the knockouts show the unsurprising free-scoring Man City that we know, but it’s worth mentioning the chunk of their goals have come in their own stadium. Indeed, they’re unbeaten in the whole UCL season (won 7, drawn 5), but only 7 goals away from home compared to the 24 they’ve managed at the Etihad shows improvements need to be made on their travels, not least for the biggest game in their history in Istanbul this weekend. All of their last 5 away UCL matches have ended in a draw! After triumphing in the FA Cup Final last weekend, Manchester City are still on course for the famous treble (Premier League, FA Cup, Champions League), seen so rarely in the sport, but City can add their name to that select group of teams.
Of course, one of the teams in that esteemed group is Inter, who achieved the Italian equivalent of this famous treble 13 years ago (Serie A, Coppa Italia, Champions League). It was a glorious year for the Nerazzurri and, whilst this season they enter the Final as underdogs, we know that nothing is guaranteed. Compared to City’s struggles on their travels, Inter have fared relatively well on foreign soil thanks to winning each of their last 2 UCL away games, one in the Quarterfinal against Benfica and one in the Semi-Final (albeit, still in their own stadium) against rivals Milan. Can they continue this trend on their next trip, their biggest trip, to Istanbul?
The main priority, of course, for Simone Inzaghi will be how to deal with the fearsome Man City attack, top scorers in the competition with 31 goals, but it will be intriguing to see how Guardiola’s men face up against Inzaghi’s proud defence, a backline that has celebrated the most clean sheets out of any team in the UCL this season (8 clean sheets), including 5 achieved across their 6 knockout matches. We can take this battle to an individual level where Erling Haaland, City’s sharpshooter with 12 UCL goals this season (4 more than anyone else), will face up against Inter goalkeeper André Onana, the man with the most saves in the tournament (45). At the other end of the pitch for Inter, striker Lautaro Martínez has had difficult spells this campaign with goalscoring droughts, but he’s picked up form at just the right time with a goal in the UCL Semi-Final, and a brace in the Coppa Italia Final where Inter retained their crown. That is their only silverware of the season so far, can they double it with the most coveted trophy of all?
Serie A – Relegation Play-Off – Spezia vs Verona
We thought that the UEFA Champions League Final would be the last match of the European season, but we were wrong! We thought that still would have been the case, but a 91st minute goal on the final matchday of the Serie A season has brought about this unique Relegation Play-Off that has not been seen in Italy for 18 years!
Previously, if two teams ended the season on the same number of points, the head-to-head tie breaker would enforce who finished ahead in the rankings. However, last summer, the Italian federation decided that if teams were level on points at the end of the season in either a title race or a relegation battle, then a play-off would be introduced to decide matters. In its first season of being reintroduced since 2005, we see this one-match battle once more. In the neutral venue of Emilia-Romagna, Spezia and Verona have one game to keep themselves in Serie A, or suffer relegation to Serie B.
Spezia will be ruing the missed opportunity on the final matchday. Last weekend, they were drawing 1-1 against Roma before the Aquilotti conceded a 91st penalty, scored by Roma’s Paulo Dybala, to end the match in a defeat for Spezia. Had they drawn, it would have been enough to survive. It would have got them over the line to safety, but now Leonardo Semplici’s men need a victory in this Relegation Play-Off to stay up, and wins have been so hard to come by for his team: Spezia have only won 1 of their last 12 matches (drawn 4, lost 7). The frustration for the Aquilotti is that they do have the better head-to-head record this season against Verona, winning 1 and drawing 1, and that usually would be the tiebreaker to see them safe, however the reintroduction of this Play-Off rule has prevented what would usually be a ticket to next season in Serie A. They can’t let that affect them, and Semplici will make sure of that, but this match has all the similarities to a Cup Final, drama is to be expected!
In truth, Verona will be ruing their own missed opportunities too. In their penultimate match of the regular season, the Gialloblu were winning 1-0 against Empoli before an own goal by Giangiacomo Magnani in the 96th minute ended the game as a 1-1 draw. Had Verona won, they would have been safe! Nonetheless, Marco Zaffaroni’s men thought they were relegated until Roma scored a winner against Spezia on the final matchday, so they will be grateful they have a last-ditch chance to confirm a place in Serie A for next season. Relegation seemed a certainty when Verona were stuck in the drop zone from October until May, but an upturn in form in the final months (3 wins, 2 draws, 1 defeat in 6 matches between April 8th and May 7th), saw them momentarily jump out of the bottom 3. Whilst they eventually slid back into the relegation zone, that period of form proved crucial in ending level on points with Spezia and earning this Play-Off. Still, winless in their most recent 4 matches sees them arrive at this match out of form, just like Spezia, which leaves this match wide open for any possibility!
On an individual level, all eyes will be on Spezia’s M’Bala Nzola, joint-5th top scorer in Serie A and the player to score both goals in Spezia’s 2-1 victory over Verona earlier in the season. For Verona, the key responsibility might fall to Simone Verdi who, in his last 3 matches against Spezia (playing for both Verona and Salernitana), has scored 3 goals.