French Open 2023: who are the favourites?

There is no denying this week’s tournament preview is tinged with more than a little melancholy as we witness in real time the curtain coming down on one of the game’s all-time greats, Rafael Nadal, absent from yet another tournament through injury. The tennis circuit, meanwhile, keeps on marching on. Just a matter of days following the conclusion of the Italian Open in the Eternal City, we are already looking ahead to the next of the big prizes in view. The French Open, the second of the Grand Slam tournaments, gets underway in Paris on 28 May. Wherever you look there are intriguing matchups and talking points, across both the men’s and women’s draws. Let’s dive in and take a look; the stakes could not be higher.

What better place to start than with the bombshell news that 14-time and defending French Open champion Rafael Nadal will be missing from this year’s tournament, and indeed away from the courts for an extended period. The update released in a press conference last Thursday left the tennis world reeling as Nadal confirmed fans’ worst fears that he had been unable to recover from the hip injury which has dogged him all year. One must surely wonder whether this signals the beginning of the end for Nadal who has held an iron grip over this Slam for nearly two decades since first winning in 2005. It will be the first time the Spaniard misses his favourite tournament since 2004, when he was aged just 17. Now, at nearly 37 years old, unable to overcome one injury after another, with thousands of miles on the clock, the big question is, will we see Nadal return to the courts at the highest level?

For the first time since 1998 – 25 years – the tournament will be without greats Federer and Nadal in the draw. And as the light slowly goes out on the Big Three of men’s tennis, the women’s game has seen an emerging trio of top players ready to step in to fill the void, and all three will be eager to lift the “Coupe Suzanne-Lenglen” in Paris. Defending French Open champion and World No.1 Iga Swiatek is the clear frontrunner, according to Austrian former player and analyst Barbara Schett, though the Pole will face tough competition in the shape of Aryna Sabalenka and Elena Rybakina, both also recent Grand Slam winners. In fact, both Belarusian Sabalenka and Kazakh Rybakina have favourable recent records against Swiatek, with both having claimed victories against her this year (Rybakina with three wins). To add even more spice into the mix, Swiatek raised concerns of her physical condition last week when retiring injured in the semi-finals in Rome, but it has since transpired the decision was precautionary.
 

As far as rankings are concerned, World No.4 Rybakina can consider herself unlucky to not be ranked higher following her Wimbledon triumph last summer; in exceptional circumstances she missed out on the customary 2000 ranking points granted to winners of the Grand Slams as no ranking points were awarded following the tournament’s ban on Russian and Belarusian players competing at the Championships. The 2022 Wimbledon champion would certainly be in the top two or three in the standings, especially considering her consistent results since last summer, including a runner-up performance at the Australian Open in January earlier this year, and victory most recently in Rome. Though falling short to Sabalenka in the first slam of the year, Rybakina will be eager to reproduce her best title-winning form to go all the way in Paris.
 

Between them, the trio have shared the last four Grand Slams and are establishing themselves as the players to beat on tour. Given the three athletes are relative contemporaries (aged between 21 and 25), the consistency and high level they are demonstrating suggests they will pull away from the pack and dominate the important tournaments over the coming years. That said, not long ago similar pronouncements were made about Noami Osaka and Ash Barty, and both abruptly disappeared from the tour as they approached what could be considered their prime years. So perhaps more evidence is required before we can confirm a replacement “big three”, especially in view of how unpredictable the female game has been in recent years, not least when it comes to the Grand Slams. 

It would certainly be a stretch to say the women’s draw is wide open, though the best-of-three sets format does allow for a dark horse or an outsider to break through, as we have seen as recently as 2021 with the shock victory of qualifier Emma Raducanu at the US Open, aged just 18 at the time. Should one of the three favourites not clinch the title, other dangerous players to watch out for include Tunisian Ons Jabeur, two-time Grand Slam finalist, recognised as a player of great variety, and Greek World No.8 Maria Sakkari, a consistent performer on tour, having reached multiple WTA 1000 finals.

Leading contenders on the men’s side include, naturally, 22-time Grand Slam champion Novak Djokovic and World No. 1 Carlos Alcaraz. Djokovic, undoubtedly boosted by news of rival Nadal’s absence, will be anxious to take the lead in the all-time Grand Slam stakes, having tied with Nadal on 22 at this year’s Australian Open. That said, the Serb has struggled to find continuity and form this year, having missed the Sunshine double in March and suffering early exits at the two Masters 1000 events he has competed in, Monte Carlo and Rome. He will be up against extremely dangerous opposition in Daniil Medvedev, the Russian having replaced Djokovic as World No.2 following an impressive (and unexpected) win at the Foro Italico, his fifth title of 2023. Medvedev must now be considered somewhat of a surprise among the contenders in Paris even if the clay is far from his favoured surface.

Experts suggest the Italian Open represents the closest conditions to the Roland Garros and as such provides a useful barometer of players’ form ahead of the all-important Slam in the French capital. Given its proximity in the calendar and the similarity of court speed, we have reason to believe the best-performing players in Rome will also go deep in Paris. In recent years this forecast has tended to hold true, with Nadal and Djokovic sharing the spoils in Rome over the last 15+ years. Nadal’s absence and Djokovic’s fluctuating form so far this year provides hope for the likes of Holger Rune, Casper Ruud, Stefanos Tsitsipas, who all reached the semis or better in Rome. 

Meanwhile, Carlos Alcaraz is surely the outstanding favourite. The young Spaniard, who must reasonably be considered Nadal’s heir apparent, generates no shortage of excitement, owing to his all-court game style, featuring laser-sharp ground strokes, expertly executed drop shots and lightning-quick footspeed. His year-to-date record is near-perfect: 30 wins and just three losses, including four title wins. However, a shock early exit at the Italian Open to little-known Hungarian qualifier Fabian Marozsan, who served up an all-star performance, will have left ‘Carlitos’ with a sour taste. 

Having lifted the trophy at the Madrid masters the week prior, Alcaraz refuted suggestions fatigue played a factor in his loss to Marozsan, nevertheless he will no doubt be grateful for a few days extra rest to arrive in peak condition for the French Open, especially when considering stress fractures from overplaying or overtraining have caused him to miss key events in the past. Remaining injury-free will be half the battle. Former British Number 1 and current tennis analyst Tim Henman puts Alcaraz “fractionally ahead” of Novak Djokovic, saying the pair are “the two clear favourites” for the title.
 

Another young prodigy to watch out for in this year’s draw is new World No.6 Holger Rune, fresh from reaching the final at the Foro Italico. Like Alcaraz, Rune celebrated his 20th birthday a matter of weeks ago, and competing in just his second year on tour, the Danish player has already picked up a maiden Masters 1000 title in Paris (last November, defeating Djokovic in the final) and has consolidated that this year by reaching a further two Masters finals in Monte Carlo and Rome. In his fledgling career he has registered more than a few scalps (three wins against World No.1 players), enabling him to establish, crucially, favourable head-to-head records against title rivals such as Djokovic, Jannik Sinner and Stefanos Tsitsipas. Though it must be remembered, Rune lacks experience at the Grand Slams where the best-of-five set format provides a test of endurance unlike anything else on tour: that is where Djokovic believes he has the upper hand. 

The two-week tournament promises to be full of intrigue and drama. Finals weekend takes place 10-11 June. You don’t want to miss it!