The time has come. The FINAL matchday in some of Europe’s big leagues, with penultimate weekends for others
And so, this is it. In a unique season that has had wedged between it a World Cup, we are finally coming to the conclusion of the European seasons. In some competitions, this is the very final weekend, a last chance (if teams even have the opportunity) to get to where they want to be. As far as final matchdays go, this one is particularly intense: so much can still change at the top and bottom of the table, it will be difficult where to look! Here is our analysis of what is bound to be a memorable football weekend. Whatever you do, make sure to not miss a thing!
Not sure who to take a punt on? Then read our preview and place your bets wisely!
Contents:
- Premier League – Final Day Relegation Battle
- Bundesliga – Final Day Title Race
- Bundesliga – Final Day Relegation Battle
- LaLiga – Almería vs Valladolid
Premier League – Final Day Relegation Battle
The title is wrapped up and (more or less) so are the European qualification positions. For the Premier League, the final day drama rests on the relegation battle. Three teams (Everton, Leicester and Leeds) are fighting for the one safe space that remains (17th). The other two teams? Relegation awaits. Everton are currently in the best position, currently safe (17th) and the Toffees know that a victory will guarantee their survival. A draw theoretically could work as well, however if that happens then a victory for Leicester or indeed Leeds (if Leeds win by a 3-goal margin) would see Sean Dyche’s men go down.
Therefore, to have your destiny completely in your hands, Everton will want the victory, but such an outcome rarely comes when facing this weekend’s opponents, Bournemouth: the Toffees have lost all of their last 4 direct encounters against Bournemouth. However, only one of those came at Goodison Park and, prior to that, Everton did win the previous 4 home games against the Cherries. If only there was a similarly positive outlook to recent home matches this season, Dyche’s men winless in their last 4 (drawn 1, lost 3), that needs to change if they don’t want any extra final day stress! They’ve been in the top-flight of English football since 1954-55, they want to keep it that way!
Leicester will also be at home and face a West Ham side who might have priority looking ahead to their UEFA Europa Conference League Final against Fiorentina, so can the Foxes pounce at the opportunity? Hoping that Everton don’t win, Dean Smith’s men also need a victory to survive, a remarkable scenario given that we are talking about the 2015-16 Premier League and 2020-21 FA Cup champions. They could be just one of two previous PL champions to be relegated (after Blackburn Rovers) and if an identical result to the encounter last season is seen here (2-2 at the King Power Stadium), it won’t be enough.
Leeds need a miracle, in truth. Sam Allardyce’s men need to win whilst hoping that Leicester fail to earn victory, and Everton either lose or draw. If Everton draw, then Leeds need to beat Tottenham by a 3-goal margin to overturn the goal difference tiebreaker. For starters, they need to make sure they win, and that so rarely happens against Spurs: Leeds have only won 1 of their last 10 PL matches against Tottenham (drawn 1, lost 8), however that sole victory did come at home in the month of May (2021). Tottenham may be struggling themselves, but the Yorkshire side will need to do something special to avoid dropping down to the Championship.
Don’t miss any of these three games!
Bundesliga – Final Day Title Race
There is far more going on in the Bundesliga, it’s difficult where to look! Whilst there is a remarkable relegation battle going on between Augsburg, Stuttgart, Bochum and Schalke, we will first focus on the title race as we could be witnessing history: for the first time in 10 years, we might finally have a champion that ISN’T Bayern Munich.
That lies firmly in the hands of Borussia Dortmund. Indeed, they are the last team other than Bayern to lift the Meisterschale (back in 2011-12), and they may just get their hands on it again. Die Schwarzgelbe have been at the top of the table a few times this season, bouncing up and down alongside Bayern but, only last weekend, Edin Terzić’s men jumped right back to the top. To stay there and be crowned champions, all they need to manage is a victory at home against Mainz. They’ll be grateful the match is at the Westfalenstadion, their stadium only seeing 1 defeat all season and that came way back in August (won 14, drawn 1). Better yet, since the start of 2023, Dortmund have won ALL their home matches, they only need one more and a 9th Bundesliga title is theirs. But, BEWARE, die Schwarzgelben have lost 2 of their last 5 home league games against Mainz (won 2, drawn 1). Surely we won’t see yet another twist?
Bayern Munich were 9 points ahead of Borussia Dortmund by the 15th matchday (the end of 2022) but, almost paradoxical to Dortmund’s 2023 fortunes, Bayern have really struggled since. With 10 wins, 4 draws and 4 defeats this calendar year, FCB have dropped so many points in so many games, leading to the surprising sacking of Julian Nagelsmann and swift introduction of Thomas Tuchel, but even he has not been able to turn the tide completely. A 3-1 loss at home to Leipzig last weekend knocked them from 1st to 2nd, and now they’re not in control of their own fate. They need Dortmund to fail to win, and Bayern must win. Incredibly, if Dortmund draw and Bayern win, then the Bavarians will win the league on goal difference! Tuchel’s men will travel to Kӧln in the hope of a miracle and, whilst Bayern have won on all their last 8 trips to face this opponent, and victory might be likely, it’s the Dortmund game that depends on their destiny.
Bundesliga – Final Day Relegation Battle
We simply had to cover the Bundesliga relegation battle, too! Four teams (Augsburg, Stuttgart, Bochum and Schalke) are fighting to avoid both the last automatic relegation spot (17th) and indeed the relegation play-off spot (16th). However, two are destined to finish here, who will they be?
In truth, Schalke might be happy to go into the relegation play-off, just so that they avoid automatically dropping down. Why? They’re currently in 17th and have to face high-flying Leipzig away from home. Given that they’ve lost all of the 4 previous encounters against Leipzig, a victory will be difficult to come by, so a draw might be their only hope. However, if they are to draw, then they need to hope that Bochum loses their match against Leverkusen! Schalke have only lost 4 of their last 16 Bundesliga games this campaign (won 5, drawn 7) but it might be too little, too late.
Bochum, to their advantage, will be at home for their final match of the season against Leverkusen. If Schalke lose their match, then Bochum at the very least will have the relegation play-off, but they will be completely safe if they win and Stuttgart draw and Schalke draw/lose (and also if Augsburg lose), or if Bochum draw and Stuttgart and Schalke lose. The main priority for Thomas Letsch’s men is that they don’t drop into 17th, but the fact they haven’t beaten Leverkusen since 2008 (drawn 3, lost 4) could lead to a very nervy end!
Stuttgart are the first team in an automatic safe position (15th) and they will plan to stay that way. Victory last weekend against Mainz (4-1) could not have come at a more crucial time as Sebastian Hoeneß’s men jumped from 17th to 15th, and now safety will be guaranteed even if they lose and Bochum lose as well, along with Schalke failing to win. However, with a home game against Hoffenheim awaiting, Stuttgart will want something from the match. A win guarantees their safety, and a draw would too if Bochum draw/lose and Schalke don’t win. Die Schwaben are unbeaten in their last 5 encounters against Hoffenheim (won 4, drawn 1) and famously avoided relegation last season in the final minute. They will want it to be less dramatic this time!
Augsburg only really need a draw to 100% guarantee their place in the Bundesliga next season, but a run of two consecutive defeats in the league might leave fans a little nervous ahead of their final match. Next up is a trip to face Borussia Mӧnchengladbach, a team that the Fuggerstädter have beaten 3 times in the last 4 encounters (won 3, lost 1) which includes victory at home earlier this season. They are in the enviable league position, since 2000 only one team has dropped from 14th into 17th on the final matchday (Freiburg in 2014-15), so it’s unlikely to happen again… but not impossible!
LaLiga – Almería vs Valladolid
No Final Day action just yet in LaLiga! However, with only two matchdays to go, so much can still change going into the final week on June 4th. Where much can change is the battle to avoid relegation, still as many as SEVEN teams are scrapping to avoid those two remaining relegation spots. This weekend, we have some direct clashes between these teams!
The standout one is Almería hosting Valladolid. La Unión are in 15th but only 1 point (39) ahead of the relegation zone, where their opponents stand (Valladolid 18th, 38 points). Victories in 2 of Almería’s last 4 LaLiga matches has kept them away from the drop zone and, going into this match at the Estadio de los Juegos Mediterráneos, it will be great comfort to manager Rubi that those 2 recent wins both came at home. Goals have never been an issue for the Andalusians, 46 scored is the 2nd best out of all the teams in the bottom half of the table, but with a defence that has conceded 62 (the 4th worst in the league), you can see where the problem lies. Only 1 clean sheet in their last 12 games will be a concern ahead of this match but the silver lining is that that sole shutout did come in their recent home match (3-0 vs Mallorca). Almería know the importance of this match: if you win then you guarantee survival!
Valladolid kept their hopes of survival alive thanks to a sensational 3-1 victory last time out against new LaLiga champions Barcelona, a victory fully deserved and will only bring confidence to Pucela going into this relegation six-pointer. Remarkably, that win against Barcelona ended a streak of 5 consecutive league defeats for Valladolid, and they’ll hope to back it up with another victory against an opponent they have already beaten this season, winning 1-0 against Almería back in September. These two teams joined LaLiga together after finishing 1st and 2nd in the Segunda División last year (both on 81 points) and they are on nearly identical tallies once more (Almería 39 points, Valladolid 38), but victory for Paulo Pezzolano’s men will see them leapfrog their opponents and get one step closer to safety. By being a point behind Almería, victory for Valladolid won’t guarantee safety, but they know how crucial the 3 points will be!