The tennis carousel continues: looking ahead to the Rio Open and Qatar Open

As the images of a radiant Novak Djokovic lifting his tenth Australian Open title recede somewhat from view, the ATP tennis calendar is back underway. While the Serb enjoys an extended break basking in his historic feat, having also returned to the summit of the men’s rankings, the next stage of the 2023 calendar is already in full swing. As tournaments in Rotterdam and Buenos Aires draw to a close, let’s look ahead to some key talking points and the developing narratives as we preview two upcoming tournaments from the ATP tour.

Kicking off on Monday 20 February is the Rio Open, with the 32-player draw taking place on Brazil’s clay courts, the only ATP Tour 500 event held in South America. ‘King of Clay’ Rafa Nadal (more on him later) was of course the event’s inaugural winner back in 2014, and in subsequent years the tournament has seen clay-court specialists lifting the trophy (David Ferrer, Dominic Thiem, Diego Schwartzman), often proving a useful early indicator that players will go on to enjoy a successful clay-court swing. 

Last year’s tournament champion was none other than Carlos Alcaraz, the Spanish teenage prodigy, only just dethroned at the top of the game by Djokovic’s recent record-breaking win in Australia and the obvious question heading into the event is whether Carlitos can defend his title. Following an injury-plagued four months in which he missed the first Grand Slam of the year after being forced to bring the curtain down early on the 2022 season, Alcaraz will be seeking to bounce back to peak form which last year saw him pick up five titles, including his breakthrough maiden Slam in New York last autumn. 

British Cameron Norrie (World No. 12) is set to be the second seed at the event and will be hoping for a deep run following a disappointing early exit in Melbourne. He will be targeting a second clay-court title to add to his trophy cabinet and a fifth overall. Meanwhile, the 500 ranking points on offer will be an important incentive for some lesser ranked players to boost their standing in the game to better position themselves ahead of the upcoming Masters event in the Californian desert of Indian Wells, often considered the unofficial fifth Grand Slam. The absence of many top-ranked players from the Rio draw (Alcaraz will be the only top-ten player in the field) opens the door to a dark horse to break through and perhaps lift their first piece of silverware. 

Home favourite Thiago Monteiro, the highest ranked Brazilian in the men’s game at 82 in the world, looks unlikely to have a deep run but will be hoping the home crowd can spur him on to put on a good performance. The 28-year-old has pulled off a few scalps in the past, having beaten numerous Top 10 players during his career, including former World No. 5 Jo-Wilfried Tsonga at this very event back in 2016.

The similarities between the left-hander, with a game particularly suited to playing on the clay –a heavy top-spin forehand and a counterpunching, baseline game – and his idol Nadal, are clear for all to see. Can the Brazilian string together an improbable run to pick up his first ATP career title?

Meanwhile, during the same week several thousands of miles away another important tournament will be taking place, and despite the last-minute withdrawal of Rafa Nadal, there will nevertheless be a stellar line-up competing at the Qatar ExxonMobil Open. The ATP 250 event, voted Tournament of the Year for 2022 in its category by the players, has been graced by genuine greats of the game including serial Grand Slam winners of the 1990s in Boris Becker, Stefan Edberg and Jim Courier, along with the Big Four of Federer, Nadal, Djokovic and Murray. 

Founded 30 years ago, the event which offers a prize money of over $1 million, is one of just two ATP tour events held in the Middle East and provides another opportunity for top and lesser-known players alike to set a marker down ahead of the early-spring North American double of Indian Wells and Miami. The draw is set to be fiercely contested, with two Top 10 players scheduled to compete. Russian Andrey Rublev leads the draw as top seed, while Nadal’s failure to recover in time for the event means Canadian Felix Auger-Aliassime replaces him as second seed, and will be looking to kick-start his 2023 after a disappointing performance in Melbourne. The World No. 8 will be targeting the fifth hard-court title of his career and boost his confidence ahead of the upcoming hard-court Masters series events. 

Despite the tournament only awarding 250 ranking points, the field in Doha is shaping up to be very competitive, sprinkled with Grand Slam winning pedigree in Daniil Medvedev (who was World No. 1 as recently as last August) along with consistent performers Alexander Zverev and Roberto Bautista Agut, the winner of last year’s edition. 

The Spaniard comes in as eighth seed and far from the favourite to retain the title owing to the star-studded talent throughout the draw. Medvedev in particular will be eager to return to form following a lacklustre spell which has seen him drop from the Top 10. Can this tournament prove the turning point to kick start his 2023? 

We could go on. The question marks around individual players and the impact of these tournaments on their season are endless, as are the opportunities for betting. What is certain, we are in for a thrilling week of tennis.